The tyranny of conversion

October 18th, 2007

Measuring conversion on an ecommerce site pretty much always involves establishing an overall site conversion rate. For most ecommerce sites this figure seems to hover around the 2% mark. Overall conversion rate seems like a hallowed metric – the one true “anchor metric” by which overall performance is measured. As a result there seems to be a slavishness regarding the site conversion figure. I think this can be misleading.

Firstly, to be clear, increasing the conversion rate is an excellent goal to aim for, but if it drops off it is worth considering two other performance metrics:

  1. Total volume of sales
  2. Cost per sale

What are overall sales doing? Are they increasing or decreasing?

Has there been a marked increase in marketing spend or spend in any other areas of acquisition?

Volume Vs conversion
As a rule, the more paid for (solicited) traffic driven to a site the greater the pressure the site is under to perform.

Demand generated traffic, by which I mean the likes of online display, tends to deliver visitors with lower levels of interest and a lower pre-disposition to take a desired action. It’s not surprising that this often has a negative impact on overall conversion. However, driving traffic to a site is crucial to growth for obvious reasons.

Affiliate marketing is a good case in point. Say an agreement is made between a client and an affiliate network (such as TradeDoubler or Commission Junction) with remuneration being established on a cost per sale basis, effectively the client’s acquisition (CPA) cost is fixed at a certain rate. The result is that the cost of driving the mix of volume and quality traffic is passed on to the affiliate network. The affiliate network’s strategy (to begin with) may be to drive a large volume of extremely low cost traffic, with the result that conversion goes down while sales volume is met and CPA is met.

Because the affiliate network is paid on every sale that is attributed to them they are incentivised to provide as many sales as possible at the lowest possible cost to them. There could also be an additional incentive if they reach a certain target volume in a given time period. In other words these combined conditions can give rise to a situation in which volume of sales increases while conversion rate falls.

I have seen instances reflecting this where conversion has taken a sudden dip while volume of sales remained steady; on further investigation it was traced to an increase in traffic which in turn was traced to one specific site in another country – a direct result of rogue affiliate action.

Cost per sale Vs conversion
In the case of an e-commerce site where the desired outcome is generally pretty simple by definition – sell something – all efforts can be said to contribute towards that one goal. Therefore all expenses incurred can be said to be as a result of pursuing that goal. It would be reasonable then to establish a cost per acquisition figure which should also act as a key performance indicator.

The issue becomes how to measure cost per acquisition and what to include in the cost of sales: advertising, site updates, internal labour costs, 3rd party costs (professional services, systems etc), administration and so on.

The more included the higher the CPA. But, fixing the equation will at least allow the CPA to be used as a benchmark performance metric over time.

It seems to me that if sales are increasing and overall cost per acquisition is falling then performance can still be viewed positively despite a conversion rate which may also be suffering as a result.

By contrast, if the conversion rate is going up but sales are falling and cost per acquisition is increasing in part due to an expensive but highly targeted acquisition strategy which has a low yield then the increasing conversion rate can be misleading.

Doubtless this is all stating the obvious but it is done so in the aim for a more balanced perspective.

Would the real "get to product page" metric please stand up.

September 26th, 2007

I’ve worked with quite a few e-commerce sites over the past few years and in our dashboard of metrics visits reaching a product page has always been there. This is for two reasons:

  1. In (almost) all cases its possible to add a product to the shopping cart page from the product page
  2. Because the product page naturally contains the greatest volume of information relating to a product.

So it has always been considered good to get visitors to the product page because shop owners stand a better chance of selling from the product page.

On that basis marketers often have a fairly obvious eureka moment and decide what a good idea it would be to land traffic directly on their product pages. No!

Product pages are just that, they aren’t landing pages. There is a significant difference and it is hard to find a page that will do both.

Because of this strategy it is possible for the “Get to product page” conversion metric to vary from anything between 40-75%. I think there are two problems with this.

Firstly this standard way of viewing this conversion metric doesn’t take into account traffic that was just dumped there by an adword campaign or a banner of affiliate campaign.

Secondly, by including visits that enter on product pages it masks the ability of the site to actually drive traffic through to these pages.

Funnels
Ah, but what about using a funnel to accurately track conversion to product page?

It depends on which analytics tool you use but many now, including Google Analytics, quite correctly (in my view) do not base their funnels on rules that require a visitor to have passed through the previous step in order to be counted I the next step. That means all visits reaching each step are counted – including those that enter directly.

Don’t forget bounce rate

How could anybody forget bounce rate. In this instance bounce rate queers the pitch because not only do these visits enter on a product page but they also disappear again immediately without doing the one thing we want them to. In other words not only did the site play no part in driving these guys to a product page but also they were totally disinterested in what they saw. Definitely not to be included in a performance metric like “get to product page”.

In short then, first know what you want to measure.

  1. Is it the site’s ability to convert visits to a product page or…
  2. …just the total number of interested visits that arrive at a product page.
  3. Or do you really want to know the total figure, warts and all.

If it’s 1 then look at total volume of visits reaching the product page less the total volume of visits that enter on a product page.

If its 2 then look at the total volume of visits that reach a product page less the total volume bounce visits on a product page.

If it’s 3 then send an email, I’d love to hear from you.

Is exit page really the most useless metric?

September 10th, 2007

Generally yes. Everybody has to leave a site at some point whether they have completed a task or not.

Once I have bought a flight from an airline website and I have reached the confirmation page containing details and booking receipt my objective has been completed, there is no further reason for me to remain on the site and I will probably leave. I might do this either from the receipt page or I may return to the home page and depart from there. I may even browse for some final piece of information before leaving.

For this reason exit page reports in web analytics tools can often contain as many pages as entry page reports but with varying levels of weighting for each page.

The home page is often one of the main exit points from a site, this in part is because it is one of the main entry points and bounce rate plays a role here as it does in the exit rates of other pages.

The argument for looking at which pages visitors exit from follows the idea that there are pages that don’t do enough to drive visitors on to the next action, as result they prematurely reach the end of their journey and leave because they can’t see what they want or where they should go next.

Mission accomplished or mission aborted…
As already mentioned, there may be mitigating factors for this behaviour. The question then becomes how to identify and filter “acceptable” exits from “wasted” exits.

It now becomes useful to look at exit pages in the context of the preceding two or three pages using a path analysis report.

If 10,000 sessions end on the home page and 2,500 of those are attributable to the bounce rate of that page then there are 7,500 sessions that ended after seeing one or more other pages on the site. If, for arguments sake 1,000 of those sessions saw an order complete page immediately preceding the home page then it can reasonably be assumed that those visitors left having completed a purchase and their mission has been accomplished. That leaves 6,500 sessions where the mission was aborted.

The 2,500 visits that left as a result of the bounce rate have other reasons for not staying and that’s an issue relating to marketing as well as home page design. However of the 6,500 sessions, if a further 4,000 saw the search results page immediately preceding the home page then it is clear that they were not able to find what they wanted and returned to the home page for one more attempt to find what they were looking for before aborting.

Apply this logic to (for example) a category page or a product page and it becomes apparent that there are some situations in which the page has not done enough to meet expectation.

By looking at pages where the majority of exits occur then assessing why they occur, it should be possible to focus resource on exit pages where more can be done to reduce the number of “wasted” visits.

Change tracking

August 21st, 2007

Analytics is not a means to an end in its own right. Even insight that comes from analytics isn’t a means to an end in its own right. Looking at analytics data provides some initial insight but often (in my experience) it has thrown up almost as many questions as it has answers. That’s not a bad thing. The ultimate goal is action that leads to positive results.

Analytics can’t answer all questions so directly asking visitors via usability studies and/or surveys is a good way to find answers to questions that analytics data falls short on. There is also another source of information which often seems overlooked.

Many sites undergo frequent if minor tweaks and updates. Improvement often works better and is less risky as an iterative process rather than as a big re-design. In addition, if a number of issues have been identified, by picking them off one by one it’s easier to assess the relative impact as solutions are implemented.

There have been many occasions when I have been to see clients to go through the findings of an analysis and I’ve had questions as well as answers. I’ve not always had the benefit of usability studies or site surveys to help unearth answers to my questions so I’ve simply had to ask my client. On occasions like this I’ve been met with blank faces or furrowed brows as memories are searched for activity that took place around the time (shown on the trended chart) where change is apparent. Quite often an explanation is clear but this raises another issue, that of change tracking. It’s amazing how many organisations appear not to log this (adequately).

There are literally dozens of events that can have an impact on site performance, ranging from a complete site re-design to a sunny day or public holiday. I’m not suggesting that weather conditions should be factored into every site analysis, although some might consider it important enough, but changes to marketing activity on and off line will have an impact. Additionally, back end technical issues will have an impact; changing the position of a link or even just the destination page will have an impact; changing some wording; tweaking a business rule, the list goes on. Remember also that a relatively innocuous change can’t have a disproportionately significant impact.

With all the minor and not so minor tweaks that continually take place it makes sense to log these in a central data base. This could be as simple as a collection of spreadsheets for each department to a central resource that can be access by all relevant stakeholders. Each change is logged by date and ideally time of day. The benefit of being able to refer back to such a resource and accurately identify what took place around the time of a change in performance can’t be underestimated. In addition the cumulative learning that can be built up if performance tracking were included in such a database would be invaluable. If you’re reading this and you’re not doing it, give it a shot.

Doing Bad things to get results

August 10th, 2007
I’ve always worked on the basis that doing calculations using mixed metrics ( by which in this case I mean page views, visits/sessions & uniques) whilst doing an analysis is generally not good. There are some exceptions but when looking at conversion I have tended to avoid calculating it based on page views as a percentage of visits/sessions.

There have been many cases when, in my work with clients, I have faced situations in which their conversion figures have consistantly been a shade higher or lower than my own over a given time period. These have in almost all cases been due to their figures being based on actual sales as measured in their sales management systems whilst I have generally only had access to the analytics data. Not an ideal situation as I would always rather work with actual sales data but it hasn’t been a major concern since the data is generally trended over several months and we are able to see where the changes have occurred – crucial insight has still been available.

In one instance I broke my own rule and took it a step further by looking at the conversion rate using page views to the Order Complete page instead of visits and naturally the figure went up. Of course there are several reasons why the Order Complete page may be viewed more than once in a single visit and not all relating to multiple purchases.

In a follow up session I looked in more depth at regional visitor profiling using weighted segmentation described here. It showed a significant difference in conversion (based on visits only) between the UK and “Rest of World” – not surprising since in this particualr instance overseas delivery was not catered for. However there was a small market oversees that was using the site for purchases to be delivered in the UK.

I got back to thinking about the original difference in conversion between their figures and mine and decided to run a comparative analysis of the Order Complete page based on UK segment and “Rest of World”, this time looking at page views per visit on the Order Complete page and trending over the Christmas period. The pattern became much clearer. Whilst visitors from the UK viewed the Order Complete page on average once per session throughout the period, page views per visit on the Order Complete page for the “Rest of World” segment spiked at 2 around Christmas time.

Rationale? The site didn’t have multiple addresses functionality in the checkout process and so overseas visitors looking to do their Christmas shopping had to repeat the process for each purchase.

I would still be wary of doing this kind of thing but in some circumstance it can yield some surprising and interesting results.

Is a high Bounce Rate always such a bad thing?

August 3rd, 2007
Bounce Rate (a.k.a. Single Access Ratio) is much used and well known in web analytics. Described simply as the ability of an entry page to retain a visitor after arrival and drive him/her onto another page or goal within the site, it is easy to understand its importance. As the Bounce Rate goes up the apparent ability of an entry page to retain a visitor and solicit another action leading to another page or goal goes down.

It is so important that in Google’s recent upgrade of its analytics tool, the overall profile was considerably raised throughout the user interface. Given the huge uptake of GA this is only likely to bolster its overall profile as a benchmark metric.

Google’s own notes on the Bounce Rate read as follows:
“Bounce Rate is the percentage of single-page visits (i.e. visits in which the person left your site from the entrance page). Bounce Rate is a measure of visit quality and a high Bounce Rate generally indicates that site entrance (landing) pages are not relevant to your visitors. You can minimise Bounce Rates by tailoring landing pages to each keyword and ad that you run. Landing pages should provide the information and services that were promised in the ad copy”

If the resultant action from an observed high Bounce Rate is to make changes to an entry page then it is probably worth setting some additional context.

Without wanting to reduce the status of Bounce Rate in the performance analysis of any site it is worth asking the question of whether a high Bounce Rate is always such a bad thing. It is precisely because of the growing popularity of the metric that it is worth considering its status.

Below are six points which add a bit of context to the Bounce Rate metric:

1. Networked sites with separate analytics accounts (same tool)
Larger organisations may run a suite of sites or micro-sites which complement each other but are not fully integrated. As a result each site may have its own analytics account. There may also be a roll up account sitting across all sites. In circumstance like this a visitor arriving on one micro-site from PPC search may then move straight onto another if there is relevance and an available link. This may be an entirely desirable outcome but the Bounce Rate report in the analytics account for the original site will show the visit as a single page visit and therefore contribute to a higher Bounce Rate. In this case it is worth looking at the same page in the roll up account to get a better idea of the overall Bounce Rate.

2a.Variations: Home Page, List page, product page
As with many reporting metrics in web analytics, averages can sometime be misleading. The same goes for Bounce Rate. The Bounce Rate will vary considerably between different types of page. Generally it is likely to be lower on the home page and increase the deeper into the site the entry page is. So a category page will have a higher Bounce Rate and a product page Bounce Rate will most likely be higher still. As the pages become more focused and less generalised there is less to encourage a visitor entering to look around. If they don’t see what they want immediately it is easier to go back than forward.

2b.Weight of entry visits
The previous point has greater relevance when linked with the weighting of entry visits. In an extreme example, if 90% of visits enter on a home page which has a Bounce Rate of 10% and the other 10% of visits enter on product pages which have a Bounce Rate of 90% there is clearly little point in diverting resource to address the Bounce Rate issue on the product pages. The overall site Bounce Rate will be low anyway and until the landing strategy changes to make more use of product pages, or better still landing pages, there is little point in diverting resource.

3. News & media sites
Bounce Rate may be viewed very differently when looking at news and other media sites. Peaks in traffic on these sites often occur on week days at around 9am and again at around lunchtime. Visitors may often come in, take a quick look at the home page headlines and leave again. This would be enough to get a quick fix until there is time to read more. As lifestyles become busier and more time pressured this kind of activity is less surprising. On the web this would results in a high Bounce Rate. The solution might not be to encourage the visitor to delve deeper (thereby lowering the Bounce Rate) but in fact to make sure visitors can get exactly what they want on that fleeting visit thereby ensuring they continue to return for their fix. Bounce Rate has reduced status here.

4. Brochureware sites / offline calls to action (web-centric telephone numbers)
Some sites may not have a business goal that can be easily measured online. The desired action may require a telephone call. In this case it is possible that a landing page could supply all the required information for a visitor to take the decision to act and pick up the phone – hopefully to dial a telephone number that is unique to the website or landing page. High Bounce Rate + desired outcome.

5. Traffic source: Banners Vs PPC entering on a landing page
Just as different entry points have different Bounce Rates the same entry point may have different Bounce Rates depending on the sources of referral traffic. One landing page may be acting as a receptor for an advertising campaign which uses both online display (banners etc) as well as pay per click search (PPC) advertising. It is quite possible that banners may direct the greater volume of traffic and have a lower Bounce Rate whilst PPC may drive a lower volume with a higher Bounce Rate yet despite this the overall volume of good outcomes may still be low. In this instance it would be worth looking at overall volume of good outcomes for both referral sources and see which has the better conversion rate – sometimes the effect of a higher Bounce Rate can actually act as a quality filter to weed out the wheat from the chaff.

The importance of naming conventions

July 20th, 2007
If you use or are thinking of using a tag based analytics tool pay close attention to your page naming convention. Get this wrong and you’re toast. Get it right and life will be sweet.

The page naming convention is the piece of the jigsaw that allows you to find and identify content groups and pages in your analytics GUI. Some tools like Google Analytics don’t make use of page naming conventions, they just use the page URLs and / or possibly page titles. Others like WebSideStory’s HBX have specific variables in the tag that need to be filled.

The page naming convention allows the user to split areas of a site into content groups and identify pages uniquely within those content groups. It might be easier to think of it as a kind of Russian Doll. You have the site as the main content group, within that you may have a number of other content groups representing your main areas and within each of those main areas you may have another sub-level(s) of content and so on. Establishing unique content groups and page is important when creating funnels and segments which are crucial to doing in depth analysis.

It’s wise to create a naming convention before adding the tags. Within WebSideStory’s HBX the content group names and the page names are represented in two main variable within the javascript tag, these are identified as PN=… and MLC=…

JS tags for other tools use similarly identifiable variables.

Stuff to bear in mind before creating a decent page naming convention:
1. Before anything else, always think about the (business) objectives for the site and what questions your analytics tool will need to answer . Gather together the key stakeholders and ask them what their requirements are. It’s a nightmare to go through all the trouble of setting up an analytics tool only to find you can’t answers questions from a key stakeholder.

2. Do you want a “horizontal” or “vertical” naming convention?
“Horizontal” naming conventions generally identify pages by type right the way across the site i.e. Category, sub-category, product pages etc.

“Vertical” naming conventions identify pages by section i.e. ‘News>UK>article title’, ‘Sport>football>article title’.
Generally speaking media sites like online news providers tend to use vertical page naming conventions while sites selling stuff tend to use horizontal page naming conventions.

3. Don’t use illegal characters. These may be things like “()-*&? etc. They may also vary from tool to tool. Always check with the analytics provider first. To be absolutely safe stick to upper and lower case letters and “/” to separate content groups.
There are other issues with tag based tools around ensuring that you are tracking links properly, streaming video if you use it, internal search etc but these are technical issues that should be covered off as part of the essential house keeping of tagging.
If you use a tag based system that doesn’t make use of page naming conventions consider how you can improve things by using search engine friendly page URLs. There are two good reasons to make the effort here:
1. It will help categorise pages in the analytics tool user interfac
2. It will help with your SEO
Example: (you can click on the image to enlarge it)

If you are looking at setting up SEO friendly URLs you can still consider them in the context of horizontal of vertical although they will work better for SEO if they are based on a vertical solution. The trade off is a business decision you will have to take.

The objective of this post has simply been to point out that the level of ease and therefore the depth of insight you get from your analytics tool can be much enhanced if you take the time at the outset to establish a decent road map in you naming convention. I have saved myself a lot of agro in past doing this. Any thoughts or comments most welcome.

Making more of segmentation

July 13th, 2007

A thought: Who among us is NOT an individual?

Solutions implemented to improve site performance will not always appeal to everybody.

The average conversion rate may rise (and fall) but really there’s no such thing as an average conversion rate. Performance and conversion rates become more useful when they are segmented based on audience type.

Audience types can be defined and segmented in many different ways and people who buy advertising space spend their lives thinking about this. In web analytics segmentation is based on actual observed behaviour and leaves less to guess work. Segmentation ranges from how a visitor found your site to what they did on site. Depending on the level of sophistication of the analytics tool, cross segmentation can be used to obtain even better insight. Segmentation can then be used to represent groups of visitors with different objectives and levels of motivation.
Developing some understanding of visitor motivation helps minimise the risk of losing customers and maximise the potential for retaining new and existing customers.

It also helps to give some kind of weighting to your segments. This makes it easier to know where to concentrate resources.

A 3 dimensional bubble chart can help visualise this (you can click on the chart to enlarge).

In this example the Y axis shows the conversion rate within each segment based on a specific KPI; the X axis shows, as a percentage, the contribution by each segment to the total volume of good outcomes; the size of the bubble for each segment effectively acts as the weighting metric – the larger the bubble the bigger the weighting in context of all site visits.
By creating this chart it’s possible to see which segments are the heavy hitters and which have the most potential. It also gives more meaning to scenarios when the segments are overlaid on them.
Segments and scenarios
Scenarios are created to understand visitor behaviour by looking at conversion through the scenario. If several different segmented visitor types are overlaid on a scenario it’s possible to get a much richer insight into levels of motivation.


In this simple two step example scenario, it’s possible to see how the various segmented sources of traffic convert on a comparative bases. (Click to enlarge)

As I’ve already mentioned, once you start looking at segments overlaid on to scenarios, it may help to cross reference some of them to gain deeper insight. For example, say 40% of your traffic entered on the home page and 40% entered on a product page and you’ve created segments for each to see how they convert; then assume 50% of your traffic comes from organic search and this source generally converts well. You may then want to know how does traffic from organic search that enters on the home page compare with traffic from the same source entering on a product page? More importantly even if one converts better than the other does that mean the poorer converting group has no value? Not necessarily – they may just be looking for something else - check the search terms they came in on, look at the bounce rate and so on.

As more on and off-line marketing is tracked by campaign tracking and bespoke landing pages segmentation will surely become increasingly important in assessing performance and value for money. I have already experienced this with several clients.

Any thoughts / comments please do post. Many thanks.

Taking decisions for the customer

July 10th, 2007
A butterfly beats its wings in the Mojave desert and there is a tornado in China

I’m not suggesting that web analytics is like Chaos theory but I am suggesting that seemingly small changes to a site can have big impacts.

It’s a happy but rare occurrence when one fix is so clear that by its implementation a site will be transformed from having poor performance to stellar performance. A cost / benefit analysis will help demonstrate expected return.

Grand solutions like fixing internal search, reducing basket leakage or improving retention through the checkout process are all quite obvious; alternatively driving more visits to a product page or improving conversion from product pages to the shopping basket are equally so.
These are important areas which everybody should cover off in the process of analysing a site and getting them right should yield good returns. But it is because they are so important and demand so much attention that we may be overlooking a number of other smaller, simpler and cheaper fixes that could have an equal effect on performance.

Example:
The site analytics data shows a relatively low conversion from product page to basket page and this has an impact on overall site conversion. When a customer adds an item to the shopping basket they should then automatically be taken to the shopping basket. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. Many sites assume that the customer will want to continue shopping or that he/she can be persuaded to continue shopping and so the customer is left on the product page. A look at the average number of items purchased per order or per visit will resolve that question.

I have seen conversion rates double by making this simple navigational change. In this case the decision process about whether to progress to the shopping basket or not was taken out of the customers hands. If a customer wants to continue shopping there is nothing to prevent it after arrival on the basket page.

We spend a good deal of time trying to effectively second guess what our customers want and then providing them with the options. On some occasions it may be preferable for both the customer and the e-tailer to have a decision taken by default.

There are more of these simple and extremely cost efficient fixes out there. Analysing site data gets us closer to them. Making sure we already have our analytics configured by default to measure performance on the big stuff gives us more time to explore the data for these little gems.

…and what do you do?

June 25th, 2007
I used to work in online media so I’m used to blank expressions and a polite change of subject when I answered the question, “what do you do?”

After travelling for a year in 2003 I came back and took a job in the new and emerging area of web analytics.

Friends, family and people I met began asking The Question again (some more than once!) and as I gave my long winded answer I detected a greater level of interest than I had before. There seemed to be an opportunity, but I needed to get it across in a more digestible way. An analogy was required - supermarket shelf stacking.

Web analytics is like product placement on supermarket shelves. Supermarkets use every trick in the book from puffing bakery air onto customers making them feel more hungry as they enter the shop to placing frequent buy products like milk and eggs at the back of the store so customers have to walk past other products on their way to pick up the two things they came in for. Supermarkets also place more expensive items at eye level and slightly to the right because we read and browse from left to right. The eye then comes to rest on them. Related products are grouped together in continuously different ways to improve cross sell. The list is endless…

Web analysis is essentially part of the same process but taken online. Data is studied so we can understand what our customers are like, why they have come to the site, what they are interested in and what their journey through the site is like. When we’ve reached the limits of the data we turn to usability in its various guises and to online surveys. I think this is like the mortar that fills in the gaps as we build our impression of how customers are behaving online and from there how we can best meets their needs.

The result is that we go and tinker with the web pages to make sure that we are putting products and the most tempting messages in the best places to help the potential customer find what they came to buy.

The principle isn’t much more complicated than that, the techniques are. The object here and in the work that we do with our clients is to illustrate the idea, point out that it works in the same way it work for supermarkets (very well), and suggest that it’s worth doing and that if it’s done well it can pay for itself.